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02/01/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - In the 2007 NFL season, the New England Patriots reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinarily explosive offense that contained a record-setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
In the 2011 NFL season, the New England Patriots also reached the Super Bowl on the strength of an extraordinary explosive offense that contained a record- setting quarterback, a wide receiver with over 100 catches and another with six Pro Bowl citations to his credit.
So what's changed, if anything, in the four years in between?
Well for starters, that decorated wide receiver in 2007 was Randy Moss, a controversial acquisition prior to that season who ended up setting a new league standard with 23 touchdown receptions in one of the most dominant offensive campaigns ever produced.
The Patriots hoped history would repeat itself when the team traded for the equally-accomplished and polarizing Chad Ochocinco in late July, but weren't able to capture lightning in a bottle this time. The colorful veteran had the least productive season of his 11-year career, finishing with a mere 15 catches while barely seeing the field during his new team's playoff run.
If solely comparing the numbers of those two star players, it's hard to make an argument that this current version of the New England offense could actually be superior to the nearly unstoppable juggernaut that put up an NFL-record 589 points during a 16-0 regular season in 2007.
But when considering that Tom Brady didn't have Rob Gronkowski or Aaron Hernandez to throw to that year, such a statement suddenly doesn't seem as far- fetched.
The sensational second-year duo has helped to revolutionize a tight end position that's traditionally been viewed as a secondary outlet for quarterbacks, shattering much more than stereotypes in their instant ascension to stardom. The pair's combined 2011 totals of 169 catches, 2,237 yards and 24 touchdowns were by far the most by a tight end tandem in NFL history, well ahead of the 163 grabs and 1,927 yards compiled by a foursome of San Diego Chargers in 1984.
Gronkowski also etched his name into the individual record books with a spectacular sophomore season that saw the punishing 22-year-old rack up 1,327 receiving yards and an NFL-best 17 touchdown catches, both the most ever by a tight end. He would add three more scoring grabs in New England's 45-10 shellacking of Denver in the AFC Divisional Playoffs, a game in which the 2010 second-round draft choice hauled in 10 Brady passes for 145 yards.
Though Hernandez's stats aren't quite as gaudy, the athletic Connecticut native still made a sizeable contribution to an offense that amassed the third-most net passing yards (5,084) in a season in NFL annals. He came through with 79 catches and 910 receiving yards despite sitting out a pair of games with a knee sprain, surpassing the 100-yard mark three times over the course of the year.
"Those guys are exceptional tight ends and they've been Brady's go-to guys all year long along with [slot receiver] Wes Welker," said New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle, whose team will once again be the Patriots' Super Bowl opponent in yet another striking similarity between the 2007 and 2011 seasons. "They present a great challenge."
Rolle and his defensive mates may be catching a giant break in this championship rematch, however, after Gronkowski suffered a significant sprain of his left ankle in New England's narrow victory over Baltimore in the AFC title game on Jan. 22. Though the invaluable All-Pro had shed his walking boot during Tuesday's Media Day and is fully expected to play in the Super Bowl, it's likely he'll be limited physically to at least some extent.
"He's such a huge weapon and causes so many mismatches it makes it hard for defenses to focus on one player," said Hernandez. "Obviously if he's a hundred percent, that's what we need."
While having Gronkowski at potentially less than full strength is an obvious concern, it's not as if the Patriots will be lacking offensive options when they take the field at Indianapolis' Lucas Oil Stadium seeking to avenge their 17-14 loss to the Giants in Super Bowl XLII. Not only can New England boast a three-time champion quarterback in Brady, whose 5,235 passing yards in 2011 ranks as the second-highest amount ever, but the ever-reliable Welker came through with his fourth 100-catch season in five years and fellow wideout Deion Branch was the MVP of New England's Super Bowl XXXIX triumph over Philadelphia seven years ago.
And of course, there's Hernandez, whose ability to excel in a number of different roles has made the Patriots an even more difficult foe to defend. Though a bit undersized by tight-end standards at 6-foot-2 and 245 pounds, the 22-year-old's above-average speed and agility allows creative coordinator Bill O'Brien to often deploy him as a jacked-up wide receiver who often lines up in the slot, and he's even been utilized as a running back at times to add another wrinkle for opponents. In the Divisional Round rout of the Broncos, Hernandez led New England with 61 rushing yards on five carries.
The 6-foot-6, 265-pound Gronkowski is more the prototypical tight end whose remarkable exploits as a receiver often overshadow his prowess and value as an in-line blocker.
"Those two guys complement each other well," noted Patriots head coach Bill Belichick. "They compete against each other in a good way. They learn from each other. They've done a great job for us over the past two seasons. I'm glad we have them."
Below is a capsule look at the offense of the New England Patriots, with regular season statistics in parentheses::
Quarterback: Brady (5235 passing yards, 39 TD, 12 INT) had already entered this postseason with a laundry list of achievements, and the two-time league MVP further enhanced his legacy by tying an NFL playoff record with six touchdown passes in the Denver game. He then matched boyhood idol Joe Montana for the most postseason wins (16) by a signal-caller in the AFC Championship ousting of Baltimore, despite tossing two interceptions and playing poorly in his own analysis. The 34-year-old has still generated an excellent 25-to-5 touchdown- to-interception ratio during the 10-game win streak the Patriots bring into Indianapolis, and the 39 scoring strikes he accounted for in the regular season were the second-most of his glorious career.
Running Backs: Though it lacks a true standout, New England's backfield-by- committee approach has provided a useful complement to the team's passing proficiency. Leading rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis (667 rushing yards, 11 TD) is a strong between-the-tackles performer who's scored 24 touchdowns over the past two seasons, though the undrafted free-agent's most impressive stat is the zero fumbles over 562 career touches he's had over his four-year tenure. That impeccable track record is the main reason why he's ahead of more-talented rookie Stevan Ridley (441 rushing yards, 1 TD), benched for the AFC Championship after losing a fumble against Denver the week prior, on the depth chart. Former Jets castoff Danny Woodhead (351 rushing yards, 1 TD, 18 receptions) now holds down the third-down role held for years by 13-year vet Kevin Faulk, who's been used sparingly since returning from an ACL tear in midseason.
Wide Receivers: No New England player benefited more by the emergence of Gronkowski and Hernandez than Welker (122 receptions, 1569 yards, 9 TD), whose 1,569 receiving yards eclipsed Moss' club season mark set in 2007 and ranked second in the NFL this year, and the prolific slot specialist was a real handful for the Giants in both Super Bowl XLII (11 catches, 103 yards) as well as the Patriots' 24-20 loss to New York back in November (9 catches, 136 yards). Branch (51 receptions, 5 TD) also owns a wealth of big-game experience, having been an integral part of two previous championship teams during his first tour of duty with the organization from 2002-06, but Ochocinco (15 receptions, 1 TD) has been essentially an afterthought following a slow adjustment to a new scheme, having fallen behind both Welker clone Julian Edelman and ex-Jaguars washout Tiquan Underwood in the pecking order late in the season.
Tight Ends: The health status of Gronkowski (90 receptions, 1327 yards, 17 TD) has been one of the most followed storylines of this year's Big Game, and for good reason. He was a big factor in New England's Week 9 meeting with the Giants, netting 101 yards and a touchdown on eight catches, and eight of Brady's 12 interceptions during the regular season came on plays in which Gronkowski and sidekick Hernandez (79 receptions, 7 TD) weren't on the field together. Hernandez has been more of a focal point as of late, however, having averaged six catches and 85 yards over the Patriots' six most recent wins.
Offensive Line: Usually an unsung part of New England's sustained success, this five-man group has held up pretty well in 2011 despite two key regulars, center Dan Koppen and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer, having missed the majority of the season due to injuries. The Patriots have started three players since longtime pivot man Koppen fractured his ankle in the Week 1 opener, with capable substitute Dan Connolly manning the position for most of the way and filling in adequately, and promising rookie Nate Solder has earned his stripes by starting 13 times in place of Vollmer, who hasn't played since November because of an ankle problem but will be ready if needed for the Super Bowl. The remainder of the line is loaded with experience and prestige, as guards Logan Mankins and Brian Waters have been named to 10 Pro Bowls between them and left tackle Matt Light has served as Brady's trusted blind-side protector since breaking into the league in 2001.
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There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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