No. 7 Sooners seek entry into 800-win club

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/03/2010 -

NORMAN, Okla. (AP) -The pictures on the walls and the old videos Bob Stoops shows to his players serve as a reminder that Oklahoma's program has been thriving for decades, since long before any of them were around.

On Saturday night, Oklahoma can add to its storied history with a win against Utah State in the season opener for both teams.

By beating the Aggies, the Sooners can become only the seventh Division I team in college football history to make it to 800 wins. The others are Michigan, Texas, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Ohio State and Penn State.

``It just shows how much tradition we have here and all of the hard work and the blood, sweat and tears that the past players have put into this,'' running back DeMarco Murray said. ``We're trying to continue that tradition.

``It's Oklahoma and we expect to win a lot of games here.''

The Sooners' 560 wins since the end of World War II are the most by any school, though Michigan is far ahead with a Division I-leading 877.

``This is ... one of the more special schools in college football. You look at our tradition and history and you don't go back just a few years, you go back decades. There's not many like it,'' Stoops said. ``We're excited to be here as a team and proud to be a part of that history and tradition. Hopefully, we can keep adding to it.''

To do that, Oklahoma will need to avoid starting a second straight season with an unexpected loss to a Utah team. Last season, BYU beat the Sooners 14-13 in a game best remembered for 2008 Heisman Trophy winner Sam Bradford's shoulder injury.

The shocking loss came only eight months after their appearance in the BCS championship game. Oklahoma wound up 8-5, matching the most losses in Stoops' 11 years as head coach.

``The first game is a big game. You saw what happened in our first game last year,'' tight end Trent Ratterree said. ``We don't want to do something like we did last year. We want to completely change the way we played and in essence become a new team.''

Utah State has tried to reinvent itself since its last visit to Owen Field, a 54-3 Oklahoma blowout in 2007. Gary Andersen put together the 12th-best offense in the nation last season and went 4-8 in his first year in charge of the Aggies, the team's best win total since 2002.

That included giving an early-season scare to Texas A&M, losing 38-30 but having a chance to tie the game after recovering a late onside kick. That's the game that caught Stoops' eye as he told his team not to overlook the Aggies.

``What we have to do is walk in there with a mindset that we can tackle well and we can protect the quarterback,'' Andersen said. ``Those are two big glaring things. Those are two things we have to do to be able to have a chance in this football game.

``If we can't do those two things, it is going to be a long day.''

Unlike last year, the Sooners haven't been ravaged by injuries heading into their opener. Middle linebacker Austin Box (back) is out and defensive linemen Adrian Taylor and Frank Alexander may not play because of ankle injuries. That's nothing compared to the chaos that preceded last year's opener, with a late injury to NFL-bound tight end Jermaine Gresham compounding issues on the offensive line.

``We have something to prove. We didn't play Oklahoma football last year,'' receiver Ryan Broyles said. ``We know we have a tough schedule, but we wouldn't be here at this university if we weren't going to play great teams. We want to play like champions game in and game out.''Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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